Today it’s undeniable that the climate emergency being faced by humanity is real and in urgent need of action. In the last few years, we’ve employed various platforms, venues, and forums, including our integrated report covers, to highlight the existential threat posed by the climate crisis. Now it feels so much more encouraging as we see a myriad of sectors of society weaving threads from their respective fields into a tapestry of solutions that aims to bring carbon emissions down to zero by 2050. While the challenge is still daunting, we know that, with the right focus, countless solutions will come to light.
The journey to Net Zero will involve three phases that need to be executed within a limited timeframe. More importantly, we must keep in mind that the overriding goal is to “ solve the climate emergency”, by mitigating and reversing emissions as well as adapting to its impacts that are already here and intensifying. Because if we don’t get it right, the exponential deterioration of global climate systems and the environment will make it impossible to solve other problems like poverty, inequality, disease, food production, freshwater scarcity, mass migration, social displacement, mass extinction of species, and biodiversity loss, among others. All of this we will feel during our lifetimes and they’re undeniably accelerating as we can see in news reports every single day now.
Recall that Paris COP 21 applauded the agreements that signaled we could limit global warming to 2.0 degrees Celsius if all commitments were met. Since then, the UN IPCC issued a Special Report on Global Warming, followed by its Sixth Assessment Reports from Working Groups I, II and III, all with dire warnings and consequences for a 2-degree Celsius warmer world. Taken together, they underscored the scientific consensus that our targets must not exceed 1.5 degrees by end century. This target is slipping away from us fast but the 1.5 degrees Celsius must still remain our base case.
Consequently, “solving the climate emergency” means deliberately embarking on a journey through these phases.
The journey to Net Zero will involve three phases that need to be executed within a limited timeframe.
In PHASE ONE, we REDUCE Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides and fluorinated gases from the current 59 gigatons (Gt) of GHG’s per year, and we see emissions peak by 2025. This is where most efforts are centered today. But we cannot stop there.
Next, in PHASE TWO, we aim further to ELIMINATE all emissions of GHG’s. We must get to Net Zero emissions by 2050.
However in PHASE THREE by 2050, we must begin the arduous task of reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We must get to what is called NET NEGATIVE EMISSIONS . This is best described in the words of NASA climate scientist James Hansen: “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted...CO2 will need to be reduced... to at most 350ppm.”
For reference, pre-industrialization carbon dioxide levels were at 280ppm and we sailed past 350ppm in 1986. We continued to blow through 400ppm in 2013, the same year Super Typhoon Yolanda, the most powerful typhoon on earth to ever make landfall, announced to the world, through the suffering of millions of Filipinos, that climate change is here and that we better get our acts together now. While the COVID-19 pandemic has given the world a short respite, today emissions are on the rise again and Paris COP 21 targets still aren’t being met.
We now need to realize Phases One, Two and Three within the rapidly diminishing timeframe of the next 27 years. Failing to do this over the limited period will trigger irreversible tipping points, the effects of which we are already seeing in news reports from all over the world every day. The clock ticks as we speak. Winning this war and solving climate change will mean staying laser-focused on strategies, tactics and accelerating technologies that are likely to scale within this very critical timeframe of the next 27 years.
Progress through Phases One to Three in the battle to “solve the climate emergency” has many facets beyond just energy. It spans agricultural practices, food production, waste management practices, industrial processes, deforestation, f-gases used in refrigeration and many others. The key elements of the energy transition involves the following: reducing the carbon intensity of electricity, scaling up energy efficiency efforts, electrifying as much of transport and the industrial sectors, using carbon-neutral fuels for other hard-to-reach sectors, and deploying nature-based and man-made carbon capture, use and storage. All these will have immense implications for the central role of the electricity grid. The most important point is that by 2050, we will need 5 times the electricity we use today; and we will need 10-12 times the clean energy in use today.
For now at the FPH Group, our efforts remain focused largely on helping to reduce the carbon intensity of the electricity grid and then ultimately to decarbonize it. We’re making it our mission to shepherd the energy transition to Net Zero.
From a global perspective, we need to clean up the electricity grid’s generation sources with the intent of progressively lowering carbon intensity per kwh. This is done through a combination of renewable energy sources, storage (e.g., batteries or pump hydro), and other complementing low-carbon energy sources. This alone is a complex balancing act. For our country, adding more 24/7 renewable energy sources like hydro and geothermal power to the grid should be encouraged as no-regret options. However, what needs to be done thoughtfully is the addition of more renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Their variable and intermittent nature though necessitates that we match them with more grid capacity and storage to account for the fact that they’re not there when night falls or on cloudy or windless days. However, batteries are only capable of running 3-4 hours and thus fall short of fully providing power for the 10-12 hours before the sun rises or the stretches of cloudy or windless days or even weeks. As such, there is need for a low carbon emission fuel like natural gas to act as the bridge fuel that’s technically more suited for complementing the variable nature of renewable energy.
We view First Gen’s diverse portfolio of clean and renewable energy sources as a key enabler to a greener electricity grid. Our target is to grow our low carbon energy portfolio to 13,000 MW by 2030, of which 9,000 MW will be renewables. The construction of our LNG terminal has reached practical completion, and soon after we expect the commissioning of our floating storage and regasification unit vessel. Of course, over time, we must look toward repowering our natural gas facilities with green fuels like hydrogen as these become more feasible, or they can be decommissioned outright before 2050.
As we clean up our energy grid, we must also move towards scaling up energy efficiency as the “first fuel” and encourage its use everywhere. Today these efforts are still sparse and fragmented but they have great potential. They are the lowest hanging fruit to reduce carbon emissions and are no-brainers because they also bring real cost savings and enhance the bottom lines of our customers.
Progress through Phases One to Three in the battle to “solve the climate emergency” has many facets beyond just energy.
Yet, as we navigate this energy transition, we must bear in mind the need to keep the lights on and keep power prices affordable for all. At the same time, we must continue to improve access to 24/7 electricity for millions of households in the country who currently do not have it reliably in their lives if we are to even begin uplifting them from poverty.
Decarbonizing and scaling up a green electricity grid over the next three decades is probably the greatest energy transition in the history of mankind. It’s not just changing the electricity system but building a new global energy system with components we have never built before and at a massive scale. This will need nothing short of collaborative action among various players that today consider themselves competitors. And these also need well-coordinated and timely action on the part of regulators who must ensure energy security and be well-versed on the elements that make for a successful and just energy transition.
In addition to creating a future-ready energy system, our being 4th on the world’s climate vulnerability list necessitates that we prepare Philippine cities, communities, and infrastructure for resilience in a climate-changed world. The impacts of the climate crisis as well as climate action that will be demanded of everyone are among the forces in history that will transpire “gradually and then suddenly”. If we’re not prepared and conveniently ignore it, we’ll be overwhelmed and not recognize the world around us in the coming thirty years. The science tells us we no longer have a choice. We need to act in a systematic and collaborative way if we want to succeed and make serious headway in tackling other issues like hunger, poverty, and the other pressing Sustainable Development Goals of our time. Trying to solve those will be futile if we don’t build for the resilience we need and if we don’t ultimately “solve the climate emergency”.
The forces unleashed by the climate emergency are already creating a future that, by necessity, must look very different from the past. The times call for new paradigms and even social constructs. We will need to measure progress using new metrics and reshape our way of life to thrive in a changed and rapidly changing world. It’s all about reimagining our relationship to the planet and to one another. If humans have such immense power to degenerate the Earth, if we so choose, humanity can also wield the same power to change course and regenerate it not just for the sake of currently living humans but for the millions of other species that co-inhabit our world, today and tomorrow.
This journey to Net Zero is not purely driven by the bottom line. To all our stakeholders, thank you for your support in helping us transform our Company to one that’s truly responsive to the needs not only of our country but of the world.
